我的研究计划成立于量化流行病学和疾病管理领域,并使用决策理论原则的中心基于种植者控制植物疾病的战略和战术决策,以尽量减少作物损失,提高盈利能力和生产力。在没有信息的情况下,由于作物损害与屈服损失之间的关系,由于其高风险厌恶性质和产生了大量损失的风险,种植者和利益相关者通常采用预防性疾病控制方法。决策理论旨在减少假阳性决定的频率(即,在不经济保证的情况下施用农药,用于疾病控制),并减少农药的负面环境影响,这往往会产生偏离目标影响和有害人类健康后果的显着风险。While, these decisions are inherently a function of the social context of formation for risk perceptions, my research aims to quantify the probability (i.e. uncertainty) surrounding these decisions and provide robust recommendations on the likelihood of the utility of a broad range of strategies and tools to underpin these decisions. Judicious use of pesticides for plant disease control will lead to reduced variable costs of production by growers and stakeholders, which directly impacts upon profitability and productivity and therefore improves the diversity and resilience of the agricultural production systems supporting small farming communities in rural New York.